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January 2026

In this issue: Thinking Machines Lab / The Rise of the Neolab / Super Revenue, Not Superintelligence / Subscriber Offer

THINKING MACHINES LAB

Billions raised. Founders leaving. What's missing?

Yes, three senior figures at Thinking Machines Lab just defected back to OpenAI—a very public reminder of how brutal the AI talent wars have become. But here’s what investors should actually be asking:

What does it mean when a startup that’s raised billions and assembled a stellar founding team still can’t stop early key departures a year in?

Money and marquee CVs alone don’t build a durable frontier AI lab—and our latest neolabs diagnostic report shows why. Zeki Data has tracked the evolution of Thinking Machines Lab, and the deeper picture shows a talent imbalance that poses far bigger long‑term risks than the loss of a few high‑profile names.

Percentage of Workforce Hired by Year for Think Machines Lab and Comparator Companies

If you want to understand what’s really happening (and not happening) inside one of the most heavily-funded AI neolabs, you can get the full breakdown in our new Thinking Machines Lab diagnostic report.

NEW NEOLABS REPORTS

The AI startups rewriting the VC playbook

AI now has a distinct new startup category—meet the neolabs.

Founded in 2024–2025, and led by alumni from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google Brain, they're raising mega-rounds pre-product and back unconventional AI approaches that established players aren’t pursuing.

We’ve built in-depth talent diagnostic reports on three of the most watched Neolabs: Thinking Machines Lab, World Labs and Reflection AI.

If you want a behind-the-scenes view of their real health— grounded in their human capital data and signals you won’t find in a pitch deck—get in touch to access the reports.

SUPER REVENUE, NOT SUPERINTELLIGENCE

OpenAI, Mistral AI and Anthropic are sprinting to market—fast

While OpenAI, Mistral AI and Anthropic aren't focussing on hiring top researchers, go‑to‑market (GTM) hiring has exploded, and we expect this growth to continue in 2026.

The signal is clear—commercial execution is the epicentre, not just bigger and better models.

Q1–Q3 GTM headcount growth across leading AI companies

Projecting from the performance of these GTM teams, OpenAI is tracking to $30B in 2026 revenue, while Anthropic is poised for $17.7B—just shy of its forecast.

The race isn’t for “superintelligence”; it’s commercial. Expect aggressive expansion, sharper competition, and a battle for dominance as AI talent hiring moves from labs to boardrooms.

SUBSCRIBER OFFER

50% Off Your First Talent Diagnostic Report in 2026

If you find these insights valuable, imagine what you could unlock with a custom Talent Diagnostics report—built for any company, public or private.  Our reports are designed to give VC, Private Equity, and talent leaders a unique, decisive edge. 

As an Insights subscriber, you’re eligible for an exclusive 50% discount on your first diagnostic report for 2026.

Ready to see deeper? Click ‘Request a report’ below and our team will guide you through the next steps.

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